Marieke Schreuder1, Johanna Wigman1, Catharina Hartman1, Marieke Wichers1; 1University Medical Center Groningen, Department of Psychiatry, Interdisciplinary Center Psychopathology and Emotion Regulation, Groningen, the Netherlands
Recent studies revealed that shifts from mild to severe psychopathological symptoms are preceded by particular mood dynamics (EWS). The present study aimed to extend earlier findings by examining whether EWS may reveal not only the likelihood of psychopathological shifts but also their direction. In other words, do EWS predict the symptom cluster (e.g. depression, psychosis, etc.) that will develop? We analysed transdiagnostic time series data retrieved from the TWINS-scan study, which included adolescent twins from the general population. EWS were inferred from daily mood ratings acquired through the experience sampling method (ESM). We selected adolescents who reported higher symptom severity at one year follow-up compared to baseline in at least one of the domains of interest (depression, anxiety, paranoid ideation and somatization). This resulted in four subsamples (N=166-192). Multilevel models confirmed that EWS in mood states predict the direction of upcoming shifts in psychopathological symptoms in all domains except for somatization. For instance, the association between EWS in mood states and shifts towards depression was most pronounced for feeling down (β=0.10, p<0.001) and listless (β=0.09, p<0.001). Similarly, shifts towards anxiety and paranoid ideation were preceded by EWS in feeling anxious (β=0.09, p<0.01) and insecure (β=0.08, p<0.01) mood states, respectively. EWS thus not only revealed the likelihood of future distress, but also indicated the domain involved in this distress. EWS might therefore considerably contribute to early diagnosis and treatment. Such clinical applications of EWS however require replication of the above findings on an intra-individual level, which is currently in progress.
